The Dangers of Russian and Chinese Collaboration
Teddy Roosevelt won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1906 by brokering peace in the Russo-Japanese War. It was a deadly conflict and the first to use innovations born out of the Industrial Revolution, such as rapid-firing artillery. Besides being an impressive feat in and of itself, Roosevelt’s achievement showed the world that American power was not merely a sledgehammer to be haphazardly wielded in self-defense or against its enemies. From this point, it more closely resembled a chisel that could diplomatically end wars and shape a worthwhile future with any country.
America had perhaps an exclusive claim to this title for a long time. It lost that claim in March 2023, when China brokered a historic peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The unlikelihood that this deal would ever be achieved cannot be overstated. China – an infamously atheist country that views any religious belief as a threat to its state ideology – successfully arbitrated peace talks between two countries with not just decades of geopolitical tension but two arguably irreconcilable Islamic doctrines.
Immediately after this, Xi Jinping visited Russia and announced a landmark new partnership with the country. Russia committed to use the yuan as its international reserve currency in dealings with Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Additionally, China and Russia jointly announced increased energy ties and over $150 billion dollars of joint infrastructure projects. Upon leaving, the Chinese president declared that “there are changes that haven’t happened in 100 years. When we are together, we drive these changes” while Putin stated that “We are working in solidarity on the formation of a more just and democratic multipolar world order”.
Although many non-realists might argue that self-preservation is not the single most important goal in foreign policy creation, the simple fact is that it is the prerequisite upon which everything else rests. You cannot have national aspirations if your country doesn’t exist. For this reason, as someone who lives in the West and has a vested interest in the continuation of its democratic values, it is difficult to watch these developments with anything other than slack-jawed amazement. At times it seems that America is driving these two powers into each other’s arms. Can the West trump one of these countries in isolation? Possibly. Can they defeat both of them concurrently? Almost certainly not. Between the two of them, Russia and China have the world’s most powerful economy, its biggest population, the most extensive natural resource reserves, the most powerful navy (and perhaps armed forces, period), and the largest geographic area on the planet.
Aside from heedlessly provoking this collaboration between two hostile world superpowers, America and its allies have offered very little counterprogramming to deter a Sino-Russian bloc from forming. To date, the United States and EU institutions have sent over $100 billion dollars to Ukraine, which dwarfs the most recent accurate assessment of Russia’s annual military budget. For this, they have not only been unable to rout Russia – which has been complaining about antiquated military equipment for at least nine months – but there has yet to be a consensus articulating what the end result of this conflict should be. Suggestions have ranged from a restoration of January 2022 borders to total regime change.
In the meantime, huge amounts of money and weapons are flowing into Ukraine, a country that is ranked 122 out of 180 countries on the global corruption index. Due to rampant corruption and the lack of oversight attached to these weapons, the Department of Defense has admitted that it is “unable to provide end-use monitoring in accordance with DoD policy because of the limited U.S. presence in Ukraine”. Not only that, but the CSIS has reported that US weapons inventories are being depleted almost to the minimum reserve levels, and that they may become dependent on old or experimental weapons systems. They also report that somehow, even with their gargantuan defense budget, “the US military was not structured to fight or support an extended conflict”. On the Homefront, Western civilians have been crippled by the lack of Russian energy. Last fall, Germany announced the reopening of multiple coal plants to keep itself afloat, while many other countries grappled with record-high energy prices. Contrast this with how China has spent the last 1+ year: by marshaling its soft power, forging ties with energy-rich countries, and conserving its formidable military strength. Xi is now planning to meet with Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy, demonstrating China’s capability to appeal to both sides of a war as a third-party arbitrator. Xi is acting as the chisel, while America cannot even be as effective a hammer as it once was.
This seismic shift in international dynamics urges an uncomfortable question: are attempts at defending Ukraine worth the price of this new order? Needless to say, violations of national sovereignty, military occupation, and attacks on civilians are horrible atrocities. However, is a border war in Eastern Europe – which has roots going back hundreds of years – worth reorganizing the entire international order? By pushing two hostile superpowers into alliance with each other, the US has exposed their extensive weaknesses and lack of adroitness, thereby inviting a change in global leadership that has no precedent.
People take American and Western might for granted because in our lifetimes there has never been a serious challenger. Our unquestioned military strength and the dollar’s use as the world reserve currency are underappreciated because we’ve never wanted for them. However, as war in Ukraine rages on, the global deck is being reshuffled, and there are many good reasons to assume that America and the West will not be on top of it anymore. If a bloc consisting of Russia, China, and resource-rich Middle Eastern states is able to fully coalesce, the West simply will not bring enough to the table. America and its allies need to be careful not to further drive their biggest, most powerful adversaries into an active partnership against them, and the global audience needs to take heed that this is slowly but very surely happening.
Sources
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